2023 a Celeritas Review

A quick look back at this year

Happy Holidays

First I would like to thank everyone who has subscribed this year. Celeritas Capital started with me posting some honestly basic market write ups, and hopefully throughout the year the information I provided has become more useful and novel. In case you’re curious my first post was on the 9th of February 2023. Since then I’ve posted 41 articles. If you’re interested to see what it was about I’ve linked into below. Along with some of my favorite posts I’ve written this year. If you missed any of them please check them out!

A Brief Fixed Income Rundown

Fixed Income Fixing

CRISPR Therapeutics

Distressed Debt

These are just a few of the articles I’ve posted so far. There is a few reasons I’m writing this article first I want to share the exciting the new content I am working on for 2024. I would like to get some reader feedback, on what I am doing well (or not so well), how I can improve, what types of articles you guys want to see, etc. I also want to quickly go over what I got right and what I got wrong this past year.

What to expect in 2024

With the new year I want to streamline Celeritas Capital and my posting schedule. In 2024 I plan on posting Fixed Income Fixing every Friday, in Fixed Income Friday I’ll review the past week of the fixed income world. (Expected word count around 1,000-1,500 words.) On Sundays before weeks that I think will likely have important implications for the market i.e. FOMC meetings, weeks packed with earnings report, etc (Expected word count 500-1,500, it really depends on the week.) At the end of each month I will also do a review of the Ora portfolio.

Along with these regular posts my goal is to release one deep dive into either an equity, preferred share or a bond with a trade setup included. (Expected word count 500-2,000 depending on the situation.) Primers on a wide variety of topics will also be published at least once a month.

I also believe after building up a larger archive of work I will transfer some of my work behind a paywall. This won’t happen in the near future however I have setup a pledging system if you feel like my work is worth supporting.

Reader Feedback

Now for the most important part the polls. Please vote in the following 5 polls whenever you have time. It will help me write more useful articles for everyone.

Good calls and Bad Calls

If you will indulge me I would like to review the best trades I’ve recommended in 2023 and my worst ones. (It is only fair) To start I think CRSP 0.00%↑ is a good place to start my first article biotech company was on August 26th. (Figure 1 shows my price target and CRSP 0.00%↑ ended up hitting $76.97)

Figure 1, on August 26th

One of my favorite trades this year has been going short TLT (or the equivalent future.) With my first mention of it on February 19th, with several other short calls during this year.

Figure 2, February 21st-March 2nd

A trade I wish I would have kept trading would certainly being long SVIX 0.00%↑. I recommend SVIX 0.00%↑ calls on March 26th with an expiration of April 21st. As you can see in Figure 3 holding the calls to expiration could have netted you over 100% in gains. (From 0.90 per contract to 2.55)

Figure 3 via ToS

Figure 4, I mistakenly wrote the strike price for SVIX as April 23rd instead on the 21st

Figure 5 via Bloomberg, SVIX was the 2nd best performing fund this year. Remember to hold onto some winners

Now for some bad calls I had this year, fist up I thought in late February I thought this year would be nothing more than a bear market rally. (Figure 6)

Figure 6

The last mistake I want to quickly mention was my belief in PFE 0.00%↑ being able to turn it’s outlook around. Both mistakes resulted from me not being able to take a top down view of the market. Which I have been working on.

Thank You

Finally I’m going to thank some people who have helped immensely to start my journey on Substack. I highly recommend every single person in this list and if you some aren’t subscribed to them make sure you do. First thank you

Capital Flows

for always being willing to share your immense knowledge and just being a great guy. Celeritas won’t be around without the. motiviation and knowledge I gained from

Capital Flows

The same goes for

Maverick Equity Research

and

Mythic Market Research

.

Paper Alfa

is a brilliant writer and a macro legend.

Michael W. Green

an extremely kind and intelligent writer with great pieces weekly,

Concoda

has taught me more about finical pubmling than anyone and it is not even close, also beautiful graphics.

The Unheard of Capitalist

is someone who I’ve just recently had the pleasure of speaking with, great articles do check them out.

And finally thank YOU, yes you. I truly do appreciate everyone who has clicked subscribe. Everyone who comments, likes or even just skims it in their email. Thank you, Happy Holidays.

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DISCLAIMER: We are not Financial Advisors, and all information presented is for educational purposes ONLY. Financial markets can be highly volatile, so good risk management is a must.