This Week in Charts

Charts from all around the financial world

Hello, welcome back to Celeritas Capital and welcome to an old weekly series with a new name. This Week in Charts, which is the new iteration of midweek charts. (You can view the most recent edition by clicking on the underlined text) This will be a weekly post, I want to make Celeritas Capital more organized and provide better content. So for that reason I plan on following a stricter posting pattern. Right now I have This Week in Charts which will be posted on Wednesdays or Thursday if I am low on time. I also would like to make Fixed Income Friday a weekly fixture on Celeritas Capital. However, I feel posting on Wednesdays and Fridays is to close to each other. So Fixed Income Friday is becoming Fixed Income Fixing (can you tell I like alliterations lol) and will be posted on Mondays. If you have any suggestions or questions about the future posting schedule please leave a comment! Now into the charts.

Macro-

US Trade Balance Data, nothing really groundbreaking but an important dataset. (Figure 1)

Figure 1 via Bespoke Research

Again another great chart from Bespoke. This time we have a set of projections for YoY US CPI based on the MoM prints. (Figure 2) With the next CPI print happening Wednesday the 13th of next week this might help you with that minefield. I will be writing a more indepth article on my thoughts on the upcoming CPI print so be on the lookout for that!

Figure 2 via Bespoke Research

Unemployment slightly ticked up in August. (Figure 3) This is good for those in the cut rates camp.

Figure 3 via Ella Koeze

FX-

Figure 4 via Bloomberg

Let’s start with an interesting statistic from Bloomberg regarding the greenbacks (USD) strength in September. (Figure 4) As long time readers might know I am bullish on the dollar, especially in comparison to the dollar doomers. But anyone who paid attention in High School Stats class knows this sample size is pretty insignificant. Now to Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets and his am/FX note from September 6th.

I had a few questions about why DXY seasonality is bearish in September when it’s been up the last five years. From my experience, sample sizes <15 are not useful and >25 is better but obviously you have issues with regime changes in there.

So needless to say this chart from Bloomberg is a bit misleading. Here is the DXY cumulative P&L in September graphed going back to 1967. (Figure 5) Also make sure you check Brent Donnelly at

Friday Speedrun

(a great free weekly recap of markets) and at https://www.spectramarkets.com/ (for a daily in depth note on FX & a lot more).

Figure 5 via Spectra Markets

FX 3M 25D Risk Reversal Implied Volatility for the major pairs. (Figure 6) This data is from September 6th around 8:30 EST.

Figure 6 via Bloomberg

Some more on FX vol. below we have a graph of the 1M ATM vol. As you can see in Figure 7 we have a decent uptick in volatility in for the EURUSD (white line). As well as a noticeable increase for the GBPUSD (yellow line).

Figure 7 via Bloomberg

Credit-

In the past year, the profitability of companies, as measured by their GAAP Ebitda margins, showed different results depending on their credit ratings.

• Single-A rated companies saw their margins decrease by 20 basis points to 28.5%. This drop was mainly due to a general decline in their respective industry sectors.

• On the other hand, companies with a triple-B credit rating experienced an improvement in their margins, increasing by 60 basis points. This improvement was particularly pronounced in the communications and energy sectors.

It's important to note that both single-A and triple-B rated companies currently maintain margins that are 170-180 basis points higher than the 20-year average. However, there is a possibility that these margins could revert to the long-term average.(Figure 8)

Figure 8 via Bloomberg Intelligence

A closer look at the change by sector. (Figure 9)

Figure 9 via Bloomberg Intelligence

Index-

If you are an active day trader this next graph is probably no surprise to you. (Figure 10) To me the most surprising part of the graph was just how much selling picked up in August.

Figure 10 via Bespoke Research

In Closing-

I hope you enjoyed this old/new format, as always feedback is welcome in the comments! Also be on the lookout for my upcoming article on the CPI and which way I’m leaning. Fixed Income Fixings will also be head to your inbox soon as well. Thank you to everyone for the support, it has been very motivating. One final thing if you would like to support me and my work it would be appreciated if you considered signing up for WeBull using my referral link. (Clicking the word link should take to the account to the promotion center, if it does not for some reason the link below can be copied and pasted in your browser.) WeBull is a good brokerage for mobile trading or investing it will not replace your main broker. I also have not mentioned the best part you also receive fractional shares when you sign up, the minimum deposit can be as little as $10. Thank you to anyone who signs up with my link!

https://a.webull.com/KFgdDYXEWOKr76QPHo

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DISCLAIMER: I am not a Financial Advisor, and all information presented is for educational purposes ONLY. Financial markets can be extremely volatile, as such using good risk management is a must.