Celeritas Fund Review #2
Taking a look at some trades from the past couple of months. Along with a quick portfolio update.
Hello everyone, first I would like to express my gratitude for your continued subscription and support of my work. I apologize for my recent inactivity on both Substack and Twitter. This absence was due to personal reasons, which I prefer not to delve into at this time and are not relevant to Celeritas Capital.
However, I am pleased to inform you that circumstances have improved, and I anticipate being more active on both platforms, particularly on the Celeritas Substack. While I cannot commit to a specific posting schedule, please know that I am back and eager to generate and share alpha with you all.
Without further ado, let us proceed with our fund review.
Reviewing Some Trades:
Let us begin with a review of the trades I have executed since the last fund review. Rather than discussing every trade, I will highlight the most significant gains and losses.
As illustrated in the figures below, the Celeritas Fund encountered a downturn around April 15th, following a substantial $10,000 loss on gold futures (Figure 4). I acknowledge that such a loss in a real portfolio would be catastrophic, and my position sizing needs to be worked on. Position sizing has always been a challenging aspect for me across different products. I believe that limiting risk to 2%-5% of the total portfolio is a more reasonable approach, which should help mitigate extreme losses in the future.
Following the significant loss on gold futures, the Fund's value briefly dipped below the $90,000 mark. However, successful trades in currency and bond futures allowed me to rebuild the portfolio back to the $100,000 starting balance (Figure 3). Unfortunately, a poor trade in the biotech sector subsequently reduced the portfolio to $95,000. The company involved had a catalyst that moved contrary to my expectations (Figure 3).
I have come to realize that intra-day trading is generally unproductive. Adopting a longer time horizon for trades is likely to yield better results and potentially expand gains.
Total Trades: 75
# of Winning Trades: 38
# of Losing Trades: 37
Now let’s take a look at some good trades I’ve made in the past couple months. The first trade I would like to look at is a gold futures trade. (Figure 5) I closed the trade in Figure 5 for a total of 283 ticks or 1.20% (or 120 bps). Once the contract price fell below the 84d EMA (black line). I closed two contracts as in my experience the 84d EMA can act as a strong support for most products.
Current Portfolio Holdings:
Below are the current holdings in the Celeritas Fund (Figure 6). As you can see, the fund is long on three U.S. equity names. One of these, which we are particularly overweight on is CRSP 0.00%↑, the company has been discussed in detail on our Substack. Therefore, I will not repeat myself here. For those interested in the bullish case for this holding, please refer to my article titled “CRISPR Therapeutics” below.
The fund is also long 300 shares of GEO 0.00%↑ which has been paying off. (Figure 6) GEO 0.00%↑ is a private prison company that has several contracts with the United States government. The company (GEO 0.00%↑) has been increasing margins for investors even in the uncertain political climate. With that being said I expect the political climate to change rather quickly if Donald Trump wins in November. Current polling along with my own observations leads me to believe that Trump will win this years election. (Figure 7) If Trump does win it is likely he will reverse a Biden era executive order that bars the Department of Justice from renewing contracts with privately operated criminal detention faculties. This shutdown several of GEO 0.00%↑ faculties. With the possibilities of these old contracts coming back along with possible new contracts the future does look bright for GEO 0.00%↑.(I also own shares in both GEO 0.00%↑ and CRSP 0.00%↑in my personal portfolio just for full transparence.)
Finally we have ROOT 0.00%↑ which is an extremely interesting insurance company. (I know those words don’t usually go together but bear with me and read the linked articles) If you want to see what I mean I recommend an article by
, which I have linked below.
Another great resource on ROOT 0.00%↑ was written by
at Rouge Funds. I will also link that below I recommend reading this article as well. Both are great resources on the growth potential of ROOT 0.00%↑.
Thank you for reading, that is all I have for this Celeritas Fund review. The next review will be out in a few months, I will try my best to update you with any positions updates via Substack chat along with Twitter. My Twitter is (@)cluelessfund. My next post will likely be another equity deep dive if you have any suggestions be sure to put them in the comments. And any feedback is welcome feel free to message me or leave your thoughts in the comments.
DISCLAIMER: We are not Financial Advisors, and all information presented is for educational purposes ONLY. Financial markets can be highly volatile, so good risk management is a must.
Great trades! I enjoyed reading your honest assessment of your own performance. Trading is hard enough as it is, and even harder when you have to own up to past mistakes. Keep up the good work.